This note describes the current expectation for an El Niño event and outlines current seasonal forecast information for areas of major WFP interest:
- An El Niño event is expected to develop from July onward, peaking in the final quarter of 2014;
- Most forecasts predict a weak to moderate event;
- Information from seasonal forecasts from a variety of sources indicate possible drier than average conditions in Senegal-western Mali, moderately drier than average tendencies for Sudan and some areas of South Sudan;
- For Southern Africa, the coming season is too far away for reliable assessments. Historically, El Niño events peaking in winter are associated with drier than average conditions in the region;
- Drier than average conditions are expected in Pakistan and Indonesia;
- For Central America, all available forecasts point to drier than average season across the region.