El-Niño and Seasonal Forecasts - Seasonal Outlook for 2014

This note describes the current expectation for an El Niño event and outlines current seasonal forecast information for areas of major WFP interest:

  • An El Niño event is expected to develop from July onward, peaking in the final quarter of 2014;
  • Most forecasts predict a weak to moderate event;
  • Information from seasonal forecasts from a variety of sources indicate possible drier than average conditions in Senegal-western Mali, moderately drier than average tendencies for Sudan and some areas of South Sudan;
  • For Southern Africa, the coming season is too far away for reliable assessments. Historically, El Niño events peaking in winter are associated with drier than average conditions in the region;
  • Drier than average conditions are expected in Pakistan and Indonesia;
  • For Central America, all available forecasts point to drier than average season across the region.