South Sudan was affected by poor macro-economic performance even before the breakout of the current crisis, showing declining per capita GDP, shortage of foreign reserves, deflation, and a high spread between official and informal exchange rates.
Despite the improved harvest, the country will still have to import the equivalent of about half of its cereal production. Imports will likely be affected by the conflict.
Weak infrastructure constrains the functioning of markets and their integration, which drive broad price differences across markets and affect households’ purchasing power.
Local food prices are high, volatile and likely to increase further with the conflict. Given the high market dependency of many households, market disruptions due to the conflict, and population displacement, food insecurity is likely to increase in the coming months.
The states most affected by the conflict, namely Jonglei, Upper Nile and Unity, had the highest prevalence of household food insecurity prior to the conflict.