According to preliminary results of the 2011-2012 National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment, published in August, some 7.6 million or 30 per cent Afghans are food insecure (consuming less than 2,100 kcal per day). Among them, some 2.1 million are very severely food insecure (consuming fewer than 1,500 kcal per day) and another 2.4 million severely food insecure. The July-August 2012 Food Security and Livelihood survey conducted in 55 districts of 22 vulnerable drought-affected provinces, has showed that 34 per cent of surveyed households are food insecure, and 40 per cent are borderline food insecure.
Overall cereal production in 2012 is forecast to reach 6.32 million tons, the second highest level in 35 years, implying that Afghanistan will be 94 per cent self-sufficient for cereals this year. Owing to the large volume of cereal production and good pasture conditions, livestock production is expected to increase by 5 per cent in 2012. Wheat and wheat flour prices, which decreased from August 2011 to June 2012, began increasing again in July. Prices are below August 2011 levels for wheat (-10 per cent) and wheat flour (-5 per cent). The current global wheat price increase could potentially pass through to domestic markets, due to trade linking Afghanistan to regional markets.