Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
18 December 2014
  • Households are continuing to rely on high levels of negative coping mechanisms in Kailahun, Sierra Leone, and in Lofa County, Liberia – areas that were food-secure before the crisis. Ebola-induced food insecurity remains a serious concern.
  • In the Nzerekore Region of Guinea and in the central zone of Liberia, households are using fewer negative coping strategies compared to November. In other zones, levels of negative coping strategies have remained constant over the past month.
  • Generally, local rice prices are in seasonal decline and imported rice prices are stable or falling. Palm oil prices are stable or increasing in Liberia as markets resume, but they are falling in Sierra Leone, contrary to usual seasonal trends.
  • While wage-to-rice terms of trade are improving in most areas of Guinea and in southern and eastern Sierra Leone, they are declining in Liberia and in areas of Sierra Leone that are experiencing continued EVD transmission.
Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
18 December 2014

The WFP Seasonal Monitor examines satellite imagery of rainfall and vegetation in order to assess the development of the growing season and how such conditions might impact the lives and livelihoods of the resident populations. Real time satellite data streams and seasonal forecasts are analyzed to highlight potential developments that may be of  humanitarian concern.

This Seasonal Monitor webpage provides real time satellite data streams and seasonal forecasts to highlight changes in the progression of the agricultural season that may be of concern. This analysis is also presented in Power Point and report format.

Market Analysis, Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
17 December 2014

WFP’s food security analysis/VAM service is actively monitoring the food security situation across the three primary countries affected by Ebola: Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Various assessments are ongoing to better understand the impact of the crisis on food markets and households’ food security. Such information is critical for informing governments’ policies and programmes and the broader humanitarian response.

Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
30 November 2014
  • Households in the Forest Guinea and in Conakry are resorting more frequently to negative coping strategies. The coping strategy index remains high in Nzerekore and Conakry, the areas most affected by the Ebola virus disease (EVD).
  • Despite the harvest season, the level of coping strategies used by households has not decreased since October. In Upper Guinea, the spread of EVD in the region and its impact on employment in artisanal mining may explain this phenomenon.
  • In most areas, local rice prices have fallen as the harvest has increased food availability in markets. Imported rice prices remain stable compared to October. While the terms of trade of daily casual labourers have improved, they still remain low in Forest Guinea.
Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
30 November 2014

Every month, WFP and FAO issue an information note on food security trends and humanitarian implications in West Africa. The bulletin offers analysis of food availability international and regional market trends, and provides updates on household food security in the region. Recommendations are made for humanitarian interventions. The bulletin is published in both French and English.

Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
25 November 2014
  • Despite the start of the main harvest, little-to-no effect on indicators in high EVD-affected zones of all countries has been observed, including Forest Guinea (Guinea), Lofa County (Liberia) and Kailahun District (Sierra Leone), where people are continuing to implement severe coping strategies.
  • The geography of food insecurity is shifting as the epidemic evolves. For instance, decreased wages and terms of trade are observed in the newly cordoned-off Northern Province in Sierra Leone, where many new EVD cases have been registered since September.
  • In Liberia and Sierra Leone, food security impacts appear less severe in urban areas than in rural ones.
  • While imported rice prices are generally stable, the price of local rice has dropped noticeably in production areas of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as new supplies are brought to market.
  • The EVD outbreak may be disrupting wage labour markets in newly-affected areas of Sierra Leone. Wage rates remain low in Lofa.
Market Analysis, Monitoring, Population Numbers and Sampling, Food Security Analysis
24 November 2014
  • Governments and humanitarian actors need estimates of how many people are food insecure due to the Ebola outbreak in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone.
  • We estimate that almost 1.7 million people are currently food insecure — 200,000 are food insecure because of Ebola.
  • Low Estimate for March 2015: If the disease continues to spread at the average rate observed in the previous 42 days and then begins to slow down by January 2015, as predicted by health experts, the number of food insecure will likely reach 2.3 million. The Ebola effect accounts for 750,000 people.
  • High Estimate for March 2015: If the disease spreads at the maximum rate observed in the previous 42 days and then begins to slow down by January 2015, the number of food insecure will likely reach 3.0 million. In this scenario, the Ebola effect accounts for 1.4 million people.
  • This analysis shows that the disease will impact urban areas more than rural areas in all three countries. Provinces that were relatively food secure before this crisis are among the worst affected.
  • The cost of inaction is extremely high. Even if the disease slows down as of January, the number of people rendered food insecure by Ebola is substantial. A two-pronged approach is therefore necessary: most importantly, the disease must be contained; at the same time, appropriate assistance must be provided for all those whose lives and livelihoods are being directly or indirectly affected by this unprecedented crisis.
Market Analysis, Monitoring, Population Numbers and Sampling, Food Security Analysis
23 November 2014

WFP VAM publishes ‘Special Focus’ documents when an emerging food security issue deserves in-depth attention. Each ‘Special Focus’ bulletin provides essential elements of analysis for decision makers. Sources of information include WFP’s VAM  newtwork of VAM experts, and  our partners.

Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
16 November 2014

Since September 2014, WFP has been collecting basic food security data remotely through mobile phones in Ebola-affected countries in West Africa. Each month, mVAM (mobile Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping) surveys are sent to randomly selected panels of households in Sierra Leone, Guinea and Liberia through text message (SMS) and Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology. The average sample size in each of the three countries for the first round was 770 respondents. The findings confirm higher reduced Coping Strategy Index (rCSI) in Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) affected areas (see map).

Monitoring, Food Security Analysis
31 October 2014
  • The Reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI) is particularly high in Forest Guinea, the part of the country that has been most affected by the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). Households are using more severe coping strategies, leading to a food security situation that is more precarious than in the rest of the country. According to surveys conducted before the crisis, this area already had a high prevalence of food insecurity.
  • Casual labour rates are lower in Nzerekore than in other regions. Limited market access to trade agricultural products could further reduce the demand for unskilled labour during the harvest period.