The terms of trade of pastoralists have slightly increased in terms of red sorghum (specifically, camel/red sorghum, +2.5%; cattle/red sorghum, +2.5%; goats/red sorghum, +2%), due to the regeneration of pasture, improved water availability in most pastoral livelihood zones and carry-over stocks from the 2011/2012 Deyr season. However, substantial decreases are reported in Togdheer (cattle/red sorghum, -37%) and in Bakool (camel/red sorghum, -32%; cattle/red sorghum, -32%; goat/red sorghum, -31%). On a quarterly basis (Q3-2012/Q2-2012), labour wages declined almost everywhere but in Middle Juba (+33.8%), Sool (+28.6%), and Awdal (+13.2%), resulting in an overall deterioration by 2.7% of casual labourers’ purchasing power, with remarkable wage/red sorghum ToT collapse in Bakool (-52%), Bay (-32%), and Gedo (-31%) where continued conflicts is disrupting economic activities.
October 2012