A major military confrontation between different factions erupted in mid-December 2013. The conflict primarily affects the states of Central Equatoria, Jonglei, unity and upper Nile. Lakes, Warrap and eastern Equatoria are indirectly affected. As of end of January 2014, the conflict has caused the displacement of over 825,000 people.
The conflict has resulted in the loss of lives and assets, including livestock, the main livelihood source for most households. Widespread conflict is also causing disruption to trade, in a context where most households are market-dependent. The states currently most affected by conflict are those where households exhibit the highest dependence on markets, in particular after the harvest. As households spend high proportions of their income on food, they are vulnerable to the significant price rises that are likely to result from the conflict.
As a matter of fact, the conflict will have severe impacts on the food security status of the populations of South Sudan. Overall, the harvest was below-average, while conflict-induced disruption to markets will affect physical and economic access to food, especially for the directly affected population in the states where the conflict is most severe. Significant increases in food requirements are expected in areas with high IDP concentrations. The severity of these impacts will be magnified if the conflict lasts into the 2014 agricultural season, which will start in April.
Despite the conflict, South Sudan is in a deflation phase, with a y/y rate of -14% and -8.8% in November and December respectively; gasoline and diesel prices are also decreasing by 13.5% and 12% respectively compared to December 2012.