The conflict in Syria intensified during the July – September quarter with a continued proliferation of various armed opposition groups leading to widespread insecurity. Fierce fighting has led to more population displacements in Homs, Idlib, Aleppo and the north eastern part of the country. Revised estimates indicate that the number of IDPs has risen to 6.5 million from 4.25 million in July. As of October, UNHCR reports that over 2 million Syrians had found refuge in neighbouring countries.
Vulnerability is increasing due to conflict, reduced economic activity, reduced crop production and high prices. According to UNDP, more than half of the population, 12.6 million persons, now live in poverty, of which an additional 6.7 million persons became poor during the period of the conflict, with some 3.6 million categorized as extremely poor.
Between Q2 and Q3-2013, seasonally adjusted prices of wheat flour and sugar increased in Syria (+20% and +16%, respectively) reflecting the intensified conflict and widespread insecurity. The comparison to the previous two years (Q3-2011 and Q3-2012) shows runaway prices of wheat flour (+206%) and sugar (+81%). Diesel prices increased between July and August 2013 by 6%.