June-September is the main harvesting and marketing period in many parts of the country. Following a normal 2011/12 agricultural season, the food security situation in most parts of the country is considered satisfactory. However, preliminary forecasts from the ongoing governmental led food security and nutrition assessment have identified a total of 40 districts in the central, north western and north eastern Tanzania have identified some localized areas with possible food shortages during the November–January lean season. These include part of Dodoma, Singida, Manyara, Arusha and Mwanza regions. Other regions with pocket of food insecurity are Kilimanjaro, Kagera, Tabora, Tanga, Shinyanga, Lindi, Iringa, Mara and Morogoro.
The government has removed the food export ban imposed last year and has continued restocking the national food reserves by purchasing from the small holder farmers. Staple food prices have been gradually decreasing (-6 per cent since January 2012) as supplies continue reaching markets. However, price levels have remained above the 5 year average, making food access more difficult for low-income, market-dependant households in urban and peri-urban areas.
As the 2012/2013 agricultural season commences, potential impacts of the El Nino phenomenon are a concern. The national meteorological agency has issued weather forecasts predicting above normal rainfall in most sectors of the country for September–December. This is consistent with forecasts issued by a number of regional and international institutions.
In spite of government efforts to regulate fuel prices, high inflation and increasing fuel prices could further elevate transportation costs and thus impact consumer prices.