Southern Africa

The total number of food insecure people requiring humanitarian assistance in Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland, Zambia, and Zimbabwe is estimated to be at least 10 million while food aid requirements are estimated at 811,000 MT. The results of the April/May 2005 FAO/WFP CFSAM missions to the SADC countries indicate critical food production shortfalls in Malawi, southern Mozambique, and Zambia due to a significant decline in maize production. See: FAO

Lesotho: The Lesotho Vulnerability Assessment Committee (National VAC) estimates that 550,000 people will suffer from a significant food deficit during June 2005 – May 2006 and will require approximately 22,000 MT of food assistance. Cereal production appears to be on a downward trend, especially in the main producing districts of Berea, Butha-Buthe, Leribe and Maseru.

Endemic soil erosion, weather-related disasters and the impact of the HIV/AIDS pandemic are likely to be major underlying causes. A recent UN Country Assessment found that 59 percent of the population are living below the poverty line, with 40 percent falling into the “ultra-poor” category. See: FAO, WFP/FAO, WFP Emergency Report, FAO, FAO

Malawi: The Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee (MVAC) analysis concluded that the compounded effects of two consecutive years of drought and chronic poverty imply that between 4.2 – 4.6 million people will require food aid during the April 2005 – March 2006 consumption year.

Total maize import requirements are estimated at 767,000 tons, of which 434,000 tons will not be covered by either formal or informal imports of food. Households in the southern region, where a second poor production year has occurred, will suffer the most severe deficits. See: FEWS, FAO/WFP

Mozambique: A joint FAO/WFP crop assessment in Mozambique has confirmed the severity of the food situation in 32 districts in the central and southern regions of the country. Cereal production for 2005 is estimated to reach just over 1.9 million tons, 3 percent lower than last year's harvest.

An estimated 70,000 tons of emergency food aid will be required for approximately 588,000 food-insecure people between July 2005 and March 2006. An additional 44,000 tons of food is needed to support ongoing development programmes.

The hardest hit areas are in the southern regions of the country experiencing a 43 percent reduction in harvest. Food deficits are predicted in the semi-arid areas of Gaza and Inhambane, Manica and Tete provinces.

Moreover, a WFP assessment in western Tete Province along the border with Zimbabwe, indicate a devastating combination of chronic poverty and a lack of food resources due to the failure of early rains in 2005. Currently, only 30 percent of people's food needs are being met as a result of insufficient stocks in WFP's pipeline, and the situation continues to worsen.

Namibia: Severe dry spells have been experienced over most of the country, especially in the Caprivi region. The 2004/05 aggregate coarse grain production is provisionally forecast at 98,000 tons, representing a 16 percent reduction over last year and approximately 8 percent below the average for the previous eight years.

A cereal deficit of 82,000 tons is expected for the period between May 2005 and April 2006; however the Ministry of Agriculture expects this deficit to be adequately met with commercial cereal imports. See: WFP Emergency Report

Swaziland: The country's Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) indicates maize production at roughly 10 percent higher than last year's, but 6 percent below the five-year average. The Lowveld and parts of Lubombo suffered serious crop failure due to poor rainfall.

Swaziland 's Vulnerability Assessment Committee mission estimates that 185,000 people will face severe food shortages from August 2005 until the next harvest. Moreover, the current dry winter season is reportedly drying up earth dams, streams and rivers and grazing pastures, putting 18,000 livestock at risk in the severely affected communities. See: WFP Emergency Report, WFP Emergency Report, FAO

Zambia:The National Vulnerability Assessment Committee (VAC) summary report indicates that a series of dry spells and early cessation of rains, especially in the southern and western provinces, together with constraints related to seeds and fertilizers availability, resulted in sharply reduced crop yield and cereal production. The report indicates that approximately 1.2 million people might face food insecurity until February 2006. See: FEWS , WFP Emergency Report

Zimbabwe: Food prices have soared dramatically with the late July devaluation of the local currency. The Zimbabwe Vulnerablility Assessment Committee indicates that 2.9 million Zimbabweans would require food assistance and the Government would import 1.2 million tonnes of maize to address the country's food needs.

However, the rising prices indicate that the number of food insecure people is likely to be higher than the national VAC's preliminary estimate of between 2.9 and 3.9 million. Additionally, given the ongoing severe foreign exchange reserve constraints in Zimbabwe, the expected level of maize importation will be a challenge.

WFP is preparing to feed 4 million people before the next harvest in 2006. Inclusion of other vulnerable groups, including those who have been made homeless through the urban “clean-up” campaign, is expected to raise the numbers further.

Eastern Africa

Over 18 million people are facing very high risk of food insecurity in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region, half of them in Ethiopia. The rainfall has been poor in pastoralist areas in some parts of Eritrea, north-eastern Somali Region, eastern and northern Afar Region of Ethiopia, north-eastern Kenya and south-western Somalia.

In contrast, rains were good in most of southern and south-eastern Ethiopia, southern and north-western Kenya, the Snaag and sool plateaus of Somalia and the agro-pastoralist areas of the Karamoja Region in north-eastern Uganda. Moreover, seasonal rains in Sudan's Darfur region have seriously hampered logistical operations and made rural areas inaccessible, mainly in west and south Darfur.

The pastoralists' food security conditions have worsened since May in north-eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, eastern and south-eastern Ethiopia and Eritrea. WFP is currently conducting a review of the food security situation in 8 countries in the GHA, with specific focus on the livelihoods of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists. See: FEWS, FEWS

Burundi: The report of the Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission (CFSAM) has been released. The report estimates that the 2005B crop production has increased by 1 percent compared to last year, forecasting good prospects for the 2005C season. The food deficit is estimated at more than 330,000 tons of cereal equivalents.

Despite some improvements, food insecurity persists in northern, eastern and southern provinces due to the reduced harvests. In 2005, two million people would need emergency food aid, 40 percent more than in 2004. See: WFP Emergency Report, FAO, FAO/WFP

Djibouti: The cumulative impact of continuous droughts has led to a food crisis in five livelihood zones in Djibouti namely, Southeast Pastoral, Roadside Sub-Zone, Central Pastoral, Northwest Pastoral and Market Gardening. A food deficit of between 17 - 50 percent is projected to start in June and last for six months in pastoral zones and nine months in agricultural zones.

A total of 5,000 MT of food aid is required to meet the critical food needs of around 47,000 people for a period of six months starting in June. Around 50,000 heads of livestock require veterinary care and fodder support for three months. Moreover, the onset and the performance of the Karan/Karma rainy season will influence the livestock productivity in the rural areas. Prices in urban areas have exceeded the alert level for poor households. See: FEWS

Eritrea:Food security for most of Eritrea remains very problematic with an estimated 2.3 million people facing food insecurity (including drought and war-affected and urban vulnerable) and 190,000 MT of food assistance needed until September 2005.

The kremti rains (June – October) have started and are expected to improve pasture and water conditions in the short-term. Pastoralists in Gash-Barka are returning home from dry season riverine grazing areas. The rains should improve livestock body conditions and reproductive potential, which in turn would improve the food security of pastoral households. The next significant harvest is not expected until November 2005. See: FEWS , FEWS

Ethiopia: During the month of June meher rains (June – Sept.) have been below normal in some central meher dependent areas of the country. Preliminary results from the belg/gu season pre-harvest assessment indicate that the 3.8 million emergency beneficiaries who were identified earlier in the year may need to continue receiving food aid through the end of 2005.

This implies that the 2.5-3 million people who had been originally targeted for removal from the beneficiary list in the second half of the year will need to be kept on the emergency rolls; this is in addition to the more than 5 million chronically food insecure in the country. The additional beneficiaries would translate into an estimated additional emergency food aid requirement of close to 200,000 MT.

Areas of major food security concern continue to be the northern highlands, some parts of the south and east, and pastoralists in Afar and Somali Regions. According to FEWS Net, during the months of June and July, rainfall has been erratic and below average across the southern-most part of the Ethiopian Highlands and the southern foothills of the Amhar Mountains.

These erratic rains may result in crop stress across parts of central Oromiya and eastern SNNPR. Moreover, cereal prices remain at very high levels in the country and continued to increase in June. See: FEWS , FAO , FEWS , DPPC

Kenya: Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, particularly in the north-east, face serious food shortages despite recent beneficial rains. The impact of successive poor seasons has left a large number of households highly vulnerable and unable to cope with continued losses of livestock and livelihood options. The number of people facing food shortages is estimated at 2.7 million. See: FAO , FEWS , FEWS

Somalia: An estimated 500,000 people continue to experience serious food shortages and high malnutrition rates due to insecurity, previous high loss of livestock assets, poor rangeland conditions, high household debt and destitution. Recovery in the affected regions, which suffered from successive years of drought, will depend largely on the outcome of the 2005-2006 Gu and Deyr seasons. See: FAO

Tanzania: Harvesting of the main season maize crop has begun in uni-modal central and western regions, while in the grain-basket southern highlands, harvesting is expected to start in August. In bi-modal northern areas, rains were favourable for second-season Masika crops planted in March. The rains started early except in most of Mwanza and few other areas.

Total maize output in 2005 is expected to be below the previous year's above average crop of about 2.9 million tonnes. The overall food supply situation is generally favourable and, with increased maize supply to most markets, prices are expected to decline further. Lower prices are expected to encourage maize exports to neighbouring countries. See: FEWS , FAO , FAO/GEIWS , FEWS , FEWS

Uganda: Sporadic rainfall was recorded from mid-June in central, southern, Lake Victoria Basin and western Uganda, culminating in the onset of the dry season in July favouring crop harvesting. However, dry conditions in many locations of northern Uganda limited the first season crop cultivation which might result in reduced production.

The food situation in northern Uganda (Gulu, Kitgum, Pader and parts of Lira districts) remains precarious due to continued security concerns. Overall, an estimated 2.69 million vulnerable people rely on food assistance. See: FAO , FEWS

West Africa and Sahel

Drought and locusts swarms have severely affected agricultural and livestock productivity across the countries of Mali, Niger, Mauritania and Burkina Faso in 2004/5. Together with the extremely high food prices, the chronic poverty levels, currently at the height of the lean season, the food and nutrition situation is extremely critical in many parts of Mauritania, Mali, Mauritania, and to some extent in Burkina Faso, and aggravated by the late humanitarian response in Niger and Mali.

Burkina Faso: In Burkina Faso, seven provinces experience a serious food security problem associated with both availability of and accessibility to food. Cereal prices increased enormously and livestock prices decreased steeply resulting in reduced terms of trade. Prices of millet and sorghum in affected areas are approximately twice the 5-year average.

However, prices of maize have begun to decline as of late July consistent with normal seasonal trends. Migration of agropastoral and pastoral families and animals began earlier than normal. However, since the rains have started in June, officials note the return migrants. The households most affected by food deficits are in the Sahel Region and Lorum Province of the North Region.

An estimated 500,000 people are in need of food assistance for the next three months. Given the year was a surplus producing year, the Government of Burkina Faso has not declared a national emergency but has instead asked partners to expand their development programmes and have begun sales at subsidized prices in affected areas.

Mali: Mali is experiencing a 25 percent decrease in agricultural production compared to the past five-year average. The country's most remote areas are faced with serious difficulties of millet supply which have resulted in considerable price increases. The terms of trade used by pastoral nomadic populations to exchange their animal stock has decreased significantly.

Approximately 2.2 million people (20 percent of the population) might face food insecurity during the lean season. The increase of oil prices, the collapse of cotton and gold revenues and the effects of the Cote d'Ivoire crisis have weakened the Government's response capacity. There is hence a need for the international community to support the Government in the implementation of its National Response Plan. See: WFP .

Mauritania: Generally, the food security situation in agro-pastoral areas of Mauritania remains challenging due to a lack of availability of millet and a difficult access of the population to other frequently consumed foods (sorghum, pulses, groundnuts) because of increased market prices.

While in the predominantly pastoral zones the food security situation seems to stabilise with the beginning of the rainy season in June/July, agricultural zones that have not benefited from food aid interventions (mainly south of Hodh Cherghi, Trarza and Guidmakha) show signs of deterioration. An estimated 400,000 to 600,000 people living in these areas are in need of food assistance during the lean season.

Niger: Extreme food insecurity is evident in several parts of Niger. A round 2.5 million people are estimated to be living in a situation considered “showing warning signs” to “highly vulnerable” to food insecurity, among which 1,6 million people are facing extreme hunger.

These people have faced very high cereal prices, significant crop and livestock losses and have adapted severe risk management strategies such as distress migration, exodus, wild food consumption, large scale sales of animals and assets, and consumption limited to 1 meal per day.

The already structurally difficult nutritional situation has worsened even compared to previous years, with levels of (severe) acute malnutrition having reached alarming levels in some areas. The most affected areas are located in Northern Tillabéry and Tahoua, followed by Northern Maradi, Diffa and Zinder. The situation is expected to be critical at least until September/October.

Latin America

In Central America and the Caribbean, early prospects of the 2005 main crop harvest are favourable, reflecting satisfactory weather conditions so far in most countries of the sub-region. The aggregate output is tentatively forecast to increase from the good level of 2004.

In South America, harvesting of the 2005 coarse grains is well advanced. FAO's forecast of the aggregate output has been revised downwards to some 73 million tonnes. See: FAO , FAO

Bolivia: Planting of maize took place in November – December 2004 and was harvested in April/May 2005. Irregular distribution of rainfall affected maize crops and in many communities was causing crop failures. Some communities in the municipality of Gutierrez reported a total loss of their current crops due to dry conditions.

In 2004, a rapid impact assessment showed that 93 percent of the rain-fed main crop (maize) was lost in the departments of Santa Cruz and Chuquisaca. Crop damages were also experienced in the regions of Cordillera and El Chaco, which has been declared a national disaster area due to severe drought with an estimated 41,200 affected people. Some 55,000 people are considered most affected. See: GIEWS

Haiti: The late onset of the rainfall season caused a two-month delay in planting operations of the main 2005 season in the departments of South, South East and Central Plateau. Harvest is expected to tale place by August-September. See: FAO

Asia

In Asia, the preliminary outlook for the 2005 season is generally favourable for rice. Production in the region is forecast to rise by almost 15 million tonnes compared to 2004, to nearly 562 million tonnes. About 40 percent of this increase is expected to be accounted for by China (Mainland).

Aggregate output of coarse grains (winter and spring) in the CIS countries is tentatively forecast at 4.6 million tonnes, up by about 7 percent on last year, and this would include 2.6 million tonnes of barley and 1.5 million tonnes of maize. See: FAO

Afghanistan: According to preliminary data from FAO/FAAHF, the 2005 national cereal harvest is estimated at approximately 4.3 million metric tons. This represents a substantial increase over the previous year (43.4 percent) and a modest increase over the 2002-04 average (7.7 percent). However, this year's harvest is considerably lower (by 19.5 percent) than the bumper harvest of 2003.

Cambodia: The country experienced a below-average season in 2004/05 due to a bad drought that affected certain areas for the third year in a row. Kompong Cham, Kompong Speu and Mondolkiri provinces had the highest percentages of crop loss.

There are some 500,000 people facing food shortages in the country. Rains are late and insufficient for the period of the year. After the drought of 2004-2005, water levels are low and there could be serious consequences if the current situation continues. See: FAO

Mongolia: Harvest of the wheat crop will take place in September. The output of this crop is critically dependent on the rainfall situation in the coming months and is, provisionally, forecast to cover only about 35 percent of domestic wheat utilization. Imports of 13,000 tonnes of rice are also foreseen.

Given that the country has a serious balance of payment problem, commercial imports will only cover part of this requirement and food aid will be necessary to meet the deficit. See: FAO