El Niño - Implications and Scenarios for 2015, July 2015

An El Nino event active since March 2015 will almost certainly last through 2015 and is likely to extend into early 2016. 

The intensity of this event is increasing with a peak expected in the last quarter of 2015 and there is a significant chance that it may become one of the strongest events of the past 30 years.

The timing of the event means that it will influence all growing seasons of the northern hemisphere (broadly from May to October) as well as those of equatorial regions (Horn of Africa, Indonesia) of late 2015 and of southern Africa and South America from late 2015 to early 2016. 

The possible impacts are wide ranging and generally negative in countries facing food insecurity.