El Niño: impact on food security

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It develops when surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific become unusually warm, affecting winds, rainfall and temperatures around the world. El Niño does not affect every country in the same way: it can bring drought and extreme heat to some regions, while increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall, floods or storms in others. Each event is different and its effects depend on its strength, timing and interaction with other climate conditions.

El Niño can increase hunger in several, interconnected ways:

• Crops and livestock are lost: Drought, floods and extreme heat can reduce harvests, damage pasture and threaten livestock.
• Food becomes more expensive: Lower production and disrupted transport and markets can reduce supply and push up prices.
• Families lose income: Smallholder farmers, pastoralists and agricultural workers may lose the livelihoods they depend on to buy food.
• Existing crises become more severe: Climate shocks can compound conflict, displacement, poverty and economic instability.
• Recovery takes time: Lost assets, debt and repeated poor harvests can affect household food security long after the immediate weather event ends.

El Niño can also affect major food-producing regions, with consequences for food supplies and prices extending beyond the places directly hit by extreme weather.

El Niño’s impacts vary significantly between and within regions. The current event is expected to increase the risk of drought across parts of Southern and Eastern Africa, Central America, and Asia and the Pacific, while increasing the likelihood of floods and storms in parts of the Horn of Africa and Asia. The consequences are most serious where people already face high levels of food insecurity and depend heavily on rain-fed agriculture, pastoralism or climate-sensitive livelihoods.

Southern and Eastern Africa: Drier and hotter conditions could reduce harvests, damage pasture and increase pressure on livestock-dependent communities. In the Horn of Africa, however, heavier rainfall could cause flooding, disrupt access to markets and damage crops and infrastructure.

West Africa and the Sahel: Drought and extreme heat could reduce agricultural production and compound existing food insecurity and livelihood pressures.

Latin America and the Caribbean: Rainfall deficits, extreme heat and water scarcity could affect crops, livestock and agricultural employment, particularly in Central America’s Dry Corridor. Parts of the region may also face flooding and storms.

Asia and the Pacific: Drier and hotter conditions could affect crops, vegetation and water availability in some areas, while heavy rainfall, floods and tropical storms threaten others.

Middle East and North Africa: Below-average rainfall and high temperatures could place additional pressure on water supplies, agriculture and vulnerable rural livelihoods in some areas. 

Forecasts can provide a critical window to act before droughts, floods or storms become humanitarian emergencies. WFP combines climate information, food-security analysis and local knowledge to identify risks and help governments and communities prepare.

Depending on the context, WFP’s work may include:

• sharing early-warning information and agricultural advice;
• providing anticipatory cash assistance so families can protect food consumption and livelihoods before a shock hits; 
• pre-positioning food, equipment and supplies, and preparing delivery routes before communities become difficult to reach; 
• providing emergency food and cash assistance where impacts are already severe.
• helping to protect livestock, crops, water supplies and community assets; 
• strengthening government preparedness and response systems;

Early action can protect livelihoods, prevent families from selling essential assets and reduce the scale and cost of emergency response. Previous WFP experience indicates that each dollar invested in anticipatory action can avoid between US$3 and US$7 in losses and response costs.