WFP projects food insecurity could reach record levels as a result of Middle East escalation

New analysis by WFP estimates that almost 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse (known as IPC3+) if the conflict does not end by the middle of the year, and if oil prices remain above USD 100 a barrel. These would add to the 318 million people around the world who are already food insecure. 

When the Ukraine war began in 2022, triggering a cost of living crisis, global hunger reached record levels with 349 million people impacted. WFP’s latest projections indicate we are at risk of facing a similar situation in the months ahead if the Middle East conflict continues. During the 2022 period, food prices were fast to spike but slow to come down. This meant that vulnerable families already struggling with hunger were priced out of staple food items almost overnight, and for extended periods of time. 

While in 2026 the conflict involves a global energy hub and not a breadbasket region, the potential impact is similar because energy and food markets are tightly correlated. 

In many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food.

“If this conflict continues, it will send shockwaves across the globe, and families who already cannot afford their next meal will be hit the hardest," said WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau. "Without an adequately funded humanitarian response, it could spell catastrophe for millions already on the edge.”

The virtual shipping standstill in the Strait of Hormuz and mounting risks to Red Sea maritime traffic are already increasing energy, fuel, and fertilizer costs, deepening hunger beyond the Middle East. The conflict reverberates far and wide — and the world’s most vulnerable people are the ones who will be most exposed to its ripple effects.

According to WFP’s analysis, countries in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia are the most vulnerable due to a reliance on food and fuel imports. Projections indicate an increase of 21 percent in food-insecure people for West and Central Africa and 17 percent for East and Southern Africa. An increase of 24 percent is forecast for Asia.

Sudan, for example, imports around 80 percent of its wheat – a higher price for this staple will push more families into hunger. In Somalia, a country in the midst of severe drought, the price of some essential commodities has risen by at least 20 percent since the conflict began, according to local reports. Both are countries with high levels of food insecurity that have also experienced famine in recent years. 

This crisis comes amid severe funding shortfalls for WFP which has forced significant prioritization of programmes across all continents, ultimately meaning that people in need of assistance are being left behind. Further increases in food insecurity that are not matched by increased resources could spell catastrophe for some of the world’s most vulnerable countries that are already at risk of famine.

Note to editors:

To calculate the impact the conflict will have on global hunger, WFP analysts used the pre-crisis number of people unable to afford an energy sufficient diet (2,100kcal/day), then modeled a sustained oil price shock at USD 100 that raises transportation costs and global food prices. Weighting impacts by each country’s dependence on imported energy and food, the number of people who can no longer afford that diet was recalculated and the difference is the projected increase in acute food insecurity.

The breakdown of the increases is as follows:

Asia: 10 countries analyzed; 9.1 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity which is a 24 percent increase.

East and Southern Africa: 16 countries analyzed; 17.7 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity which is a 17.7 percent increase.

Latin America and the Caribbean: 3 countries analyzed; 2.2 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity which is a 16 percent increase.

Middle East and North Africa: 12 countries analyzed; 5.2 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity which is a 14 percent increase.

West and Central Africa: 12 countries analyzed; 10.4 million people could be pushed into acute food insecurity which is a 21 percent increase.

Video footage of WFP’s emergency operation in Lebanon can be accessed here.

High resolution photos can be accessed here and here. 

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The United Nations World Food Programme is the world’s largest humanitarian organization saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters and the impact of climate change.

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