What is El Niño? How it affects hunger – and how WFP responds

El Niño is one of the most powerful drivers of global weather, climate conditions and hunger. El Niño conditions have started and are expected to strengthen through 2026, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record and raising concerns for food security in vulnerable regions. However, because the impacts of El Niño can be forecast months in advance, there is a clear window to prepare for and act to protect food insecure people, before the effects escalate.

What is El Niño and how can it become a food security crisis?

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern that shifts global weather patterns and increases the risks of floods, droughts, storms, fires, and heat waves occur worldwide.

El Niño can bring drought to some regions and severe flooding to others – and in some cases both. These extremes damage crops, livestock and infrastructure, reducing food production and disrupting markets. As supply falls, prices rise and food becomes less affordable – especially for smallholder farmers and pastoralists who rely on rainfall. When combined with existing pressures such as conflict these climate shocks can quickly increase hunger.

El Niño can also affect major global food-producing regions, with impacts on supply and prices that extend beyond affected areas – multiplying food security risks.

What is the difference between El Niño and La Niña?

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the same ENSO cycle.

• El Niño is the warm phase, when ocean temperatures rise and disrupt rainfall patterns, often bringing drought in some regions and heavier rains in others

• La Niña is the cool phase, when ocean temperatures fall and shift weather patterns in different – but still often extreme – ways, often bringing flooding in some regions and drought elsewhere

They do not happen at different times of the year. Instead, they alternate within the same cycle and typically develop during the year, peak towards the end of the year, and influence weather patterns for several months.

Both phases can affect agriculture, water availability and food security – and both have been linked to past food crises.

Are we in El Niño or La Niña right now and how is it affecting hunger?

El Niño conditions are confirmed, with forecasts indicating an 80–90 percent likelihood that the event will strengthen through 2026, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record. These forecasts are critical because they allow governments and humanitarian organizations like WFP to act early – before drought, floods or failed harvests begin to affect food production and incomes.

While the event is still building, its potential impact is significant. The 2015–2016 El Niño affected around 60 million people facing food insecurity, showing how climate shocks can translate into large-scale hunger crises.

This next El Niño is also unfolding at a time when food systems are already under strain. High energy and fertilizer prices – linked in part to wider geopolitical pressures – are already affecting planting decisions, agricultural production and food prices. Together, these factors increase the risk that climate shocks could push more people into hunger.

Where is El Niño likely to hit food security the hardest?

El Niño affects regions differently, but hunger rises most sharply where climate shocks overlap with existing vulnerability:

•    In Southern Africa and the Sahel, drought can reduce harvests and pasture, increasing food shortages.
•    In the Horn of Africa, heavy rains can lead to flooding – damaging crops and disrupting markets.
•    In Central America and the Caribbean, prolonged dry conditions can reduce yields for small-scale farmers.
•    In parts of Asia and the Pacific, a mix of droughts and floods can affect key staple crops.

In these regions, many communities rely on rain-fed agriculture and have limited capacity to absorb shocks – meaning even small disruptions can quickly affect food availability and access.

What does WFP do before El Niño turns into a hunger emergency?

WFP focuses on an approach known as Anticipatory Action, taking steps before a crisis unfolds. Using climate forecasts and early-warning systems, WFP and partners act early to protect livelihoods before losses occur – helping families avoid negative coping strategies such as selling assets, taking on debt or skipping meals.

On the ground, this is already happening:

•    In Central America’s Dry Corridor, more than 76,000 people are receiving cash assistance, food support and practical guidance ahead of drought, to help protect crops and manage water.

•    In the Sahel, around 290,000 people are being supported with cash transfers and early-warning information, allowing them to buy essential supplies and prepare before below-average rainfall affects planting and harvest.

Other measures include strengthening water systems, including irrigation and flood protection, and disaster risk financing including savings, loans and insurance.

By acting early, WFP helps protect food production, stabilize markets and reduce the need for larger emergency responses later.

How does acting early cost less than responding late?

Because El Niño can be forecast in advance, action can be taken before impacts peak. Every US$1 invested in anticipatory action can generate up to US$7 in avoided losses. In simple terms, it costs less to protect livelihoods before a shock than to rebuild them afterwards – and leads to better outcomes for families. Early support also allows people to stay on their feet, rather than falling deeper into crisis.

Early action helps protect crops, livestock and incomes – reducing the need for costly emergency assistance and long recovery periods. 

Why is WFP well positioned to handle an emergency such as El Niño?

WFP combines global reach, expertise in early-warning systems and our operational scale to respond to food crises – before and after they hit. We further support governments in strengthening preparedness and response systems.

This is particularly important for El Niño, where predictable climate risks mean we can take preemptive measures.

During the 2023–2024 El Niño, WFP and partners reached millions of people with early support, including in drought-affected areas of Southern Africa. This helped families protect crops and livestock, maintain food consumption and reduce losses as conditions worsened.